HSBC recently released data showing that HSBC China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.2, an 11-month low and below the expected index of 50.5.
The main sub-indices showed that the initial value of the manufacturing output index was 50.8, the new order index was 49.3, the employment index was 47, and the purchase price index was 44.7. All indexes were 50 points on the line.
The reporter found that the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data for the past two years found that the value at the beginning of the year was lower than the whole year.
The PMI index is low, is it affected by the closure of the Spring Festival factory and the return of the tide? In this regard, our reporter interviewed Peng Gang, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China. He said: "The PMI is low, not caused by seasonal factors. The impact of seasonal factors is short-lived. The HSBC China manufacturing PMI index in the past two years is on the 50th line of the glory line. This is the traditional Chinese tradition in recent years. The inevitable economic downturn brought about by the economic transformation."
"The PMI index of the month does not reflect the current status of the real economy. The decline of the manufacturing industry has the characteristics of lagging. The traditional manufacturing industry itself has overcapacity and needs to force the mechanism to 'tune the structure'. The government should add new industries." Peng Gang told reporters.
It is understood that traditional industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, food and beverages, etc. have been decadent and have a long history. "China's industrialization climax has basically ended, and economic growth will truly achieve structural transformation." Yao Yang, dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said in an interview with the media recently.
On the day of the announcement of the HSBC China Manufacturing Index in March, the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding, and placed a liquidity of 20 billion yuan for 7 days, with a winning bid rate of 3.55%. In this regard, Peng Gang said: "The central bank lowered the counter-repurchase winning bid rate is to guide the interest rate down."
It is understood that the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions in November 2014. Since March 1, 2015, the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions have been lowered again. After the interest rate cut? Smoked China's one-year deposit and loan benchmark interest rates are close to the lowest level in a decade. Peng Gang said: "The Chinese economy is clearly in the channel of interest rate cuts. It is necessary to adjust fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic recovery. It may only be a matter of time before the central bank cut interest rates again.
Recently, the stock market has fluctuated sharply, and there is a market view that this is related to the low PMI index. Peng Gang said: "The short-term shock of the stock market is related to the PMI index. The stock market is a virtual economy. Most investors are speculating in stock trading. This has a herd effect. If there is a turmoil, it will cause short-term shocks in the stock market. The change of the stock market does not have much to do with the rise and fall of the real economy."
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