The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is pursuing new measures to defuse excess steel production capacity and establish a "trinity" management system

Following the pace of national reforms, a number of new industries have recently launched new policies. For the polluting steel industry, eliminating backward production capacity is the major direction of reform. Not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed that in the future, it will no longer use the FAR rate of equipment such as blast furnace equipment to eliminate indicators of backward production capacity, and instead use total energy-saving and environmental protection controls. In addition, under the strict control of new production capacity requirements, for some areas where the indicators are not enough, the trans-regional capacity index trading system is being studied.

In the first 10 months of this year, China's iron and steel industry revenue was 12.97 billion yuan, of which the main business income was 554 million yuan, and the average per-ton steel earned only 0.84 yuan, and the sales profit margin was only 0.43%. According to industry sources, the production capacity limit will reduce the supply, which is conducive to the rebound of steel prices. It is expected that the steel prices in 2014 will show a trend of low and high before and the volatility will be less than this year.

The reporter learned from the “2013 (11th) China Steel Industry Chain Strategic Development and Investment Summit” that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently deploying a number of measures to strictly control new steel production capacity and eliminate backward production capacity. These measures include: Abandoning the standard of blast furnace volume, promoting regional restructuring, and implementing the trading of capacity indicators.

A number of initiatives to resolve excess production capacity “Every time, simply raising the furnace capacity standard will bring about a new round of capacity expansion. Past history has proved this.” Director of the Iron and Steel Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xu Wenli, told reporters that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission After communicating with the China Iron and Steel Association, it was unanimously believed that the elimination criteria were not scientific. Therefore, in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, the blast furnace volume standard will not be used as a measure of eliminating backward production capacity. In the future, we will strengthen the energy-saving, environmental protection, safety, and social responsibility goals of steel companies to replace the blast furnace volume standards. These standards are being studied.

However, Xu Wenli said that it is not very good now to force local governments not to adopt this standard until the new replacement standard has come out. "Because upgrading equipment volume is the most direct method of eliminating backward production capacity, it is a good operation."

“The setting of a new phase-out standard involves the establishment of a corporate credit system, how it is supervised, and how to set up targets. It is difficult for them to have a unified standard for sintering equipment.” Xu Wenli said that due to the legal basis for energy conservation and environmental protection, it is currently used. Energy-saving and environmental protection to eliminate backward production capacity standards, the industry already has consensus.

For enterprises that will eliminate backward production capacity in the future, Xu Wenli said that first consideration should be given to the dismantling of independent ironmaking and independent steelmaking companies, which is relatively easy to promote. At present, Hebei Province is already formulating relevant policies.

In terms of mergers and reorganizations, Xu Wenli said that it will actively promote regional restructuring and encourage cross-regional restructuring. "Because the cross-regional restructuring involves too many departments and local enthusiasm is not high, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology cannot coordinate. At present, we can only make efforts in regional restructuring, but the premise is that local enterprises are willing."

In addition to eliminating backward production capacity, new production capacity will be strictly controlled. Xu Wenli said that at present, the relevant departments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are also studying the establishment of rules and regulations for the trading of capacity indicators. At present, several coordination meetings have been held to listen to the opinions of the various parties in the steel industry on index trading and stock replacement. In the future, relevant policies will be introduced.

"The capacity trading index is to make adjustments in stocks, not to use the already eliminated production capacity for trading again." Xu Wenli emphasized that the key to achieving capacity trading among local governments is to obtain consensus. If one party obtains the indicator, the other party will have to wait for the same amount of temporary production suspension or consider exit.

It is understood that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will establish a "three-in-one" management system, and on the basis of the "Standard Conditions for Iron and Steel Industry" that has already been issued, it is studying and formulating the "Measures for Regulating Enterprise Regulations in the Iron and Steel Industry" and "Guidelines for Implementing Steel Industry Standards and Conditions."

“The second batch of companies that meet the specifications of the steel industry are expected to be announced by the end of the year and the third batch of companies will be announced in the first half of next year. These three batches of companies account for about 70-80% of the existing production capacity, and the number is controlled at around 200.” Xu Wenli said that at present The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is in the process of formulating regulations and implementation guidelines for the iron and steel industry, implementing dynamic management of standardized enterprises and reviewing them once in two years. After verification, enterprises that fail to meet the requirements will be granted deadlines for technological transformation to meet the standards, and if they do not reach the standard within the rectification period. Requirements, it is necessary to withdraw from the list of enterprises.

According to Zhang Changfu, the company’s steel production is still at a high level this year. From January to October, China’s crude steel production was 652 million tons, and the forecasted annual crude steel production was 783 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 8.14%. 59 million tons. From January to October this year, the apparent consumption of China's steel industry was 614 million tons, which is expected to be 730 million tons in the whole year.

At the same time as high production, the benefits are very low. From January to October, the income of the steel industry was 12.97 billion yuan, turning losses into profits, and the industry's annual revenue is expected to be between 15 billion and 16 billion yuan. 31.4% of the industry's losses. The sales profit rate was only 0.43%, and the profit per ton of steel was 19.8 yuan, but after deducting the investment income of 9.8 billion yuan, the main business income of steel mills was only 554 million yuan, and the average profit per ton of steel was only 0.84 yuan.

“The average steel price for January-October settlement was 3,462 yuan/ton, down by 345 yuan per ton year-on-year, a decrease of 8.94% year-on-year. With this drop, the national iron and steel industry reduced revenue by 266.2 million yuan,” said Zhang Changfu.

“We will remain cautiously optimistic about the steel industry next year. First, the solution to the contradiction of overcapacity has just begun, and the effect has not yet emerged. Second, the situation of continued low steel prices will not change in the short term. Third, there is no change in the high-cost phenomenon of steel production, such as environmental protection. The cost of capital and capital will increase, and the demand side will remain relatively stable.” Zhang Changfu said: “The steel industry will still be more difficult to operate next year. We must have long-term hardship and poor days to prepare for.”

According to industry sources, resolving the contradiction of serious overcapacity will have a major impact on the steel industry in terms of environmental protection, industrial land prices, carbon emissions, and water resources. On the one hand, steel companies generally face the challenge of increasing environmental protection costs; on the other hand, Some steel mills may face the risk of exiting the market if they fail to meet environmental protection requirements. In addition, Chinese enterprises in the iron and steel enterprises account for half of the country, and by 2020 the turnover rate of state-owned enterprises will increase from 5-10% to 30%. State-owned enterprises will face greater reforms and will bring greater pressure on the state-owned steel companies. The real estate tax levy also has some pressure on construction steel.

Rebuilding the balance between supply and demand Over the years, China's steel market has been operating in volatility and has been unable to jump out of the "strange circle", that is, "the decline in market prices - steel mill prices are down - steel mills are forced to cut production - market prices have risen - steel mill prices have risen - steel "The increase in plant output - the drop in market prices" is repeated in the cycle. Under the influence of national macro-control policies, market expectations and other factors, the length of each cycle cycle and the extent of price fluctuations are different. In the iterative cycle, when the market price falls, when the supply is greater than the demand, the steel plant's response often lags behind.

Zhou Guocheng, chief consultant of China United Iron and Steel Network, said that with the gradual implementation of policies such as the “Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan” and “Guidelines for Solving the Contradiction of Serious Overcapacity”, the excessive release of steel production will be inhibited and the new market will be established. In 2014, the steel market will operate in the process of reconstructing the balance between supply and demand, and it is expected to jump out of this "circle."

Regarding the trend of steel prices in 2014, Zhou Guocheng stated that the current steel social inventory is at a low level. With the end of destocking and the beginning of a new round of supplementary stocks, steel prices are expected to rise in the beginning of 2014. It is expected that steel prices will be before 2014. After low and high, the fluctuation of steel prices will be less than this year.

To control pollution and eliminate excess production capacity to curb demand, investment banks at home and abroad are bearish on iron ore prices. According to Wood Mackenzian analysts, in the medium term, the oversupply situation will result in downward pressure on iron ore prices. In a report, Justin Smirk, a senior economist at Westpac Bank, pointed out that the price of ore may be lowered to US$110/ton by the end of this year, and may rebound to approximately US$140/ton by mid-2014, and then fall back to 110 before September. USD/ton. In short, the industry has reached a consensus on the decline in the price of iron ore, but many believe that the rate will not be too large and is expected to be around $110-120.

Some analysts stated that the steel industry's valuation and fundamentals are expected to be restored in the context of production-than-expected production. The first recommendation is to focus on leading steel companies benefiting from increased concentration, including Baosteel, ST Angang and Wuhan Iron & Steel; The second is to pay attention to the companies benefiting from the elimination of backward production capacity in the region, followed by Hebei Iron and Steel and Shandong Iron and Steel. The third is private enterprises with a focus on flexible mechanisms. They will first benefit from falling iron ore prices, such as Nangang Steel.

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