“The scale of production and sales of 500,000 vehicles in 2015†is forcing the country to increase its support for new energy vehicles.
After the series of financial subsidies and the “opening up new energy access thresholds†policy, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the “Notice on Issues Related to Electricity Price Policies for Electric Vehicles†(hereinafter referred to as “Noticeâ€). The implementation of the supportive electricity price policy for electric vehicles charging and replacing electricity facilities for the first time clearly indicates that the charging and replacing facilities operating enterprises can charge a certain charging and exchange service fee in addition to the electricity charges to the users. The fee standard is determined by the local The principle of “sloping and preferential†implements government-guided price management.
"The above policies can show the government's determination to develop new energy vehicles." A person in the industry who has long been concerned about new energy vehicles told reporters. The expressly mentioned “service fee†for charging and replacing is fundamentally due to the government’s desire to attract more private capital to enter and jointly make the cake bigger.
However, millions of dollars or even tens of millions of investments are too “huge†for private enterprises. Yu Jiandong, chairman of Shanghai Xundao New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said, “In the future, with the popularization and promotion of new energy vehicles, equipment The operational level of suppliers entering the charging and replacing power station should be the general trend, but when to enter is very critical." In his view, there are risks in entering too early or too late.
In this regard, the above-mentioned insiders also believe that the simple "service fee" is relatively small, and the role of guiding and encouraging the entry of private capital is relatively small. Fundamentally, the most important reason for influencing the capital market's enthusiasm for infrastructure investment is that the sales of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, are far from expected, while there is no clear profit model under the online, including foreign countries. for reference.
Government subsidies are difficult to follow. “The existence of service fees is actually to encourage private capital to enter.†The above-mentioned insiders told reporters that “after all, as an investment, the output ratio will be considered. If you only rely on the difference between purchasing electricity and selling electricity, the return on investment will be The rate is too low. According to the introduction, before this, including Hangzhou, Qingdao and Henan Xinxiang, there are charging and replacement stations, and they have been operating, but all are operated by the State Grid or Shanghai Putian with the background of state-owned enterprises. In other words, behind these companies there is a gap between the government and the government to “pull†the input and output.
Taking electricity exchange as an example, this insider told reporters that the cost of a single electric switch for a pure electric taxi in Xinxiang Power Station is about 40 yuan, and each car is about twice changed every day to bring the income to the power station. It is 80 yuan, with a full-load operation of 360 days a year, the income of nearly 100 taxis in the city to the power station is about 2.8 million yuan. However, Yan Yinggang, deputy director of the marketing department of Jiangsu Electric Power Company, revealed that to build a power station, the cost will be as high as 50 million yuan. If it is a charging station, it does not calculate the labor cost in land and operation. The investment in single foundation and power distribution facilities is about 3 million to 4 million yuan.
Such high investment, relying solely on the government's “payingâ€, is not only an “anti-market behavior†but also a sustainable one. On the one hand, subsidies do not rapidly advance the construction of infrastructure. Because according to the previous development plan of charging facilities announced by the State Grid, the number of electric vehicle charging stations of the State Grid reached 4,000 in 2011~2015; from 2016 to 2020, the target of the national grid construction charging station reached 10,000. However, as of the end of 2013, the State Grid has built 400 power stations, only 10% of the target in 2015. On the other hand, the economic pressure brought by the central and local governments cannot be underestimated.
“In the West, the government’s support for new energy producers is almost concentrated in the taxation field. This model is better than pure subsidies.†The industry insiders believe that “such as Tesla [microblogging], why is he so active? Going to a new energy vehicle and going to the layout of the charging network? His profit source is partly derived from the 'carbon emissions trading'." According to its introduction, the so-called "carbon emissions trading", the main mode is the government's Carbon emission has certain index requirements, and enterprises that cannot meet the requirements, such as GM, need to spend high prices to buy indicators from other qualified or surplus enterprises, or accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles to meet the standards.
Private capital enters cautiously Although the government has “retiredâ€, the enthusiasm for private capital investment to replace power stations is not high. Yu Jiandong told reporters: "In the future, with the popularization and promotion of new energy vehicles, the operation level of equipment suppliers entering the charging and replacing power station should be the general trend, but when to enter is very important." In his view, entering too early or too late There are risks. Therefore, according to its disclosure, although the company has received several “package plan†bids from local governments, Yu Jiandong also said that before the formal cooperation, Methodist will sign a “strategic cooperation agreement†with the local government to ensure In the early stage of loss, government subsidies can temporarily “transfusionâ€.
This view is not unique to it. The relevant person in charge of Zhuhai Titan Technology Co., Ltd. also said that with the liberalization of national policies, the company is also trying to transform from the previous single equipment supplier to the “operatorâ€. Further expand the business space. But such a shift may take more time to slowly "try." "The prospects for this market are very good, but if you enter now, profit expectations may still be optimistic." The above-mentioned people admit, "So, we may also take a gradual approach, first from a certain link in the industry chain. Start by looking for easy-to-access, easy-to-reward levels to 'test the water'."
Which level will be more suitable for private capital to enter, in the view of the above, the layout and operation of charging facilities for new energy buses and government-purchased vehicles may be a direction. On the one hand, in the above-mentioned bus field, it is relatively easy to solve the problems of layout and land use of charging facilities. Secondly, in the field of government vehicles, the central and local governments are gradually clarifying the proportion of new energy vehicles in the field of official vehicles. Once the policy is implemented, the number of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly. The increase in the quantity of ownership is undoubtedly of great positive significance.
However, in the above-mentioned areas, due to the existence of “local protection†in various places, in the view of Yu Jiandong, the future private capital may still cooperate with power companies or power grids in various places to facilitate the landing of corresponding investment projects.
Calling for business model innovation In a fundamental sense, the important reasons for the huge pressure on government subsidies and the cautious entry of private capital, in addition to the lack of new energy vehicles to support cost sharing, the immaturity of business and profit models is also an important reason.
Prior to this, the General Office of the State Council explicitly mentioned in the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" that it should "actively guide the innovation of corporate business models", but in the eyes of the above-mentioned insiders, the innovation of the model is not only at home, In fact, there are no mature experiences in foreign countries.
From the current situation in foreign countries, including Japan and Germany, in the construction of charging piles and other infrastructure, all vehicle manufacturers are taking the lead, and their starting point is to improve the user's supporting experience to promote front-end policy sales, and Not for profit.
Therefore, in the above-mentioned industry insiders, the practice of “charging and replacing electricity†as a profit mining point is itself “wrongâ€. In China, the construction of infrastructure should also be the responsibility of the whole vehicle enterprise, but in this process, enterprises can join hands with other forces to explore the “profit†in the service chain while solving the charging problem in an ecological circle. ".
For example, BYD Auto recently announced that it will join hands to create a new urban energy business called “Green Island Modelâ€, which includes electric vehicle charging, energy trading, car rental, consumer entertainment, and innovation and entrepreneurship. In this mode, the profitability of the charging link can be further transferred to the rest of the consumer and service segments. According to Shan Xiangshuang, chairman and president of China Merchants, this model will first be piloted in cities with conditions. According to Wang Chuanfu, president of BYD Co., Ltd., this model can effectively solve the problem of “chicken†(charging pile) or “egg†(new energy vehicle) existing in the promotion of new energy vehicles, and accelerate new energy. The popularity of cars.
Despite this, in the eyes of the industry, in the current context of the shortage of urban planning land resources, the planning and implementation of the ecological circle will still face many uncontrollable factors. Prior to this, auto analyst Zhang Zhiyong said in an interview with reporters that with the scarcity of urban land use, today's large commercial districts are gradually shifting to the suburbs, but to attract consumers who have “mileage anxietyâ€. The charging service is further away, and the operability itself is still open to question. In the view of Shan Xiangshuang, the above-mentioned “Green Island†model needs to be “long five years, short three yearsâ€.
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