Photovoltaic market grabs tide before end of June or reproduces

Photovoltaic market grabs tide before end of June or reproduces

Recently learned from a number of industry players that due to policy adjustments, the PV market is likely to recapture surges before the end of June this year, and many companies have higher order prices than last year. Even if the subsidies are lowered in the future, the cost reduction will also help improve performance.

According to the Shanghai Securities News on March 30th, according to the policy of photovoltaic power generation benchmark price adjustment issued at the end of last year, for the 2015 registered power station, as long as the power grid is connected before June 30, 2016, the original on-grid tariff can still be implemented. Therefore, the power stations that have already been completed will be focused on installation by surprise before the end of June to ensure that they receive higher tariff subsidies and return on investment, so component market conditions will be hotter in the first half of the year than in previous years." Jinneng Clean Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Yang Liyou, general manager of the company (hereinafter referred to as "Jineng Technology") said.

According to him, from the current order status of Jinneng Technology, the order price this year is generally higher than last year's level. As for the market conditions, with the adjustment of subsidies at the end of June approaching, it is expected that there will still be grab-installation, but after June, the prices of components will drop significantly.

In fact, the prices of batteries and modules have recently seen a slight correction in the market. However, in Yang Liyou's view, this is a normal range of fluctuations: on the one hand, raw material price fluctuations will have an impact; on the other hand, due to the reduction in subsidies from the end of June for some time, some buyers take a wait-and-see attitude and look forward to a further decline in component prices in the near future. To get higher profits.

Wang Hong, president of Dongfang Risheng, also confirmed that there will be a wave of grid-connected upsurges before the end of June, because according to the policy, in 2016, the benchmark on-grid price of photovoltaic power plants in China, one resource zone, two resource zones, and three resource zones will be separately from the current one. RMB 0.9/kWh, RMB 0.95/kWh, RMB 1/kWh lowered to RMB 0.8/kWh, RMB 0.88/kWh, RMB 0.98/kWh, implying a subsidy reduction of up to 12 for Class 1 resources % and over 6%.

“As long as there are 630 subsidies, there will be a lot of subsidy. Therefore, it is expected that the first and second category of resource areas will appear before 630, especially in the western region. However, since the three types of resource areas have only fallen by 2%, it is estimated that there will not be much "Wang Hong said.

He also stated that many projects are still left over from last year, and it is difficult to estimate the number of newly added projects in the market, but rush-fitting will certainly stimulate some of the demand.

"It is estimated that the cancellation of subsidies will not be possible, and the reduction will still be." Qian Jing, vice president of Jinko Energy, said that in fact, the so-called rush to install the tide is not very obvious, because from 2015 on almost no off-season and high season, four quarters are This may be the case this year. "At present, the market demand is still very strong and supply exceeds supply."

In her view, with the release of some of the production capacity, the price should return to a stable position, but in the long run, the ultimate goal of photovoltaic is to achieve parity online, so the first-line brands will continue to upgrade their technology and the cost will decline. The latter must rely on polycrystalline technology, because only polycrystals have room for efficiency.

Wang Hong thinks that it is difficult for the gross profit of wafers to maintain a high level last year, and the gross profit of components may be relatively stable.

“In the first half of this year, the phenomenon of PV rush-fitting and grid-connected was indeed outstanding and reversed the wave of rush-preparation at the end of the previous year. If the on-grid tariff adjustment nodes are all at the end of June, then the future peak of installation will be concentrated in the first half of the year. In the first quarter, the new volume should be the largest in the first quarter, and most of the projects should be started in March at the latest.Some people in the industry expect that the new PV installation capacity in the first half of this year will exceed 10GW, and it is expected to account for nearly 60% of the new installed capacity in the whole year. "Peng Xiao, head of the policy research department of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Recycling Economic Association, said.

Photovoltaic market grabs tide before end of June or reproduces