Survey: New Standard for Fuel Consumption Limits Press Industry believes that the industry is not affected

As the mandatory national standard for fuel consumption of motor vehicles, the “Limit of Fuel Consumption of Passenger Vehicles” (hereinafter referred to as the “Limited Value”) has been formally implemented since July 1, 2005, effectively urging vehicle manufacturers to use the standard. Under the regulations, we will actively invest in and research and develop related technologies such as energy conservation and emission reduction to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain.

In the face of the more stringent fuel consumption limit Phase III standard (hereinafter referred to as the “new standard”), Gasgoo.com’s latest industry survey results show that more than half of the industry’s participants who participated in the vote believe that the move is of The impact of the automotive industry will not be too great. On the one hand, it is because the new standard will adopt gradual progress and give enterprises sufficient preparation time. Second, after the standard adaptation period of the first two phases, the vast majority of enterprises have already started to implement the implementation of follow-up standards in advance. The technical reserves are relatively Ample.

The latest news shows that the new standard will be introduced in December this year, and the fastest is expected to start in 2011. At present, it is determined that 2012 is the lead-in period, and it will be officially implemented by 2015, and the time will be relatively loose. It is understood that the fuel consumption limit of the new standard is expected to decrease by 20% compared to the second phase of the standard implemented in 2008. It is intended that by 2015, the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles in China will fall to about 7L/100km. The carbon dioxide emission standard is As low as 167g/km.

Due to the drastic reduction of the new standard's limit, widespread concern and discussion has been caused by relevant public opinion. In order to more systematically and comprehensively understand the domestic automotive industry's response and evaluation of this new standard, Gasgoo.com launched a one-week industry survey on this topic (the investigation time was November 16-22), which attracted a total of 2,322 people in the industry participated in the voting and reached the aforementioned conclusions.

According to the poll results of Survey 1 (see Figure 1), 53% of people believe that the implementation of the new standard is not a big pressure on the automotive industry as a whole. In contrast, 31% of people are pessimistic about this and believe that the excessively large reduction in the limit will cause the auto industry to suffer from overall pressure and affect overall healthy development. In addition, 16% of the people did not make a clear judgment. From the feedback results of Survey 1, the industry is generally optimistic about the ability of vehicle companies to meet new standards.

figure 1

According to statistics from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, since the introduction of the fuel consumption limit standard for passenger cars since 2005, by the end of 2006, the cumulative amount of gasoline saved has reached 1.18 million tons, and the direct economic benefits have been more than 7 billion yuan. At the same time, the average fuel consumption of new vehicles in the country in 2006 has also dropped from 9.11L/100km in 2002 to 8.06L/100km, with an average decline of 11.5%. The first phase of the "Limited Value" standard, as a starting point, has a low requirement, and there is no difficulty in achieving compliance for most vehicle models. According to statistics, only about 10% of the models have not reached the first-stage limit standard, and most of them have already been suspended. Therefore, by the introduction of the second phase of the “Limited Value” standard, the fuel consumption standard of passenger vehicles has actually been improved. It is understood that the setting of the second-stage standard is based on the world average level in 2002, which is roughly reduced by about 10% compared with the first stage, making the average fuel consumption of new vehicles in the country drop below 8L/100km, as far as indicators are concerned. Not low. According to the data provided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, after the implementation of the first and second stages of the fuel consumption limit standard, a total of more than 800 vehicles that did not meet the limit standard were abolished in 2009.

The upcoming new standards will require a further 20% reduction on the basis of the second phase, clearly demonstrating the government's first-stringent and strict strategy on the automobile fuel consumption limit policy. According to sources, by the year 2020, the average fuel consumption of passenger cars in the country will be controlled at about 5L/100km, gradually matching the international level.

However, the reason why this new standard caused the industry to pay close attention to, in addition to the reduction rate is almost doubled than the second phase, the other is mainly that the new standard and the first two stages of the standard setting are subject to a single vehicle limits are different Yes, the new standard introduces the concept of “average fuel consumption of the enterprise” and “target value of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise” and directly uses the “enterprise” as the target of assessment. As a result, pressure can be released for companies that focus on small-displacement products. Products are mainly concentrated in mid-to-high-end companies. As long as the production ratio of small-displacement vehicles is planned, the overall average fuel consumption of the company can be reduced. In the case of hybrids, pure electric vehicles and other technologies that are becoming mature and the relevant models are officially put into production, they can further reduce the pressure on companies in this area. Of course, some people in the industry are worried that for those companies with tight funding and lack of new energy technologies, the energy-saving technology research and development of traditional cars can't keep up with the development cycle of the industry, and the fuel consumption limit standards are increasingly stringent. The pressure to come can be imagined.

For automakers whose market competitiveness is mainly concentrated in the low- and medium-displacement markets and whose technological strength level is still lower than that of joint ventures, what impact will this new standard introduce on them? In Survey 2 (see Figure 2), most of the people involved in the survey believe that the overall impact of autonomous car companies should be "benefit outweighs disadvantages" and the turnout rate is 50%. At the same time, those who believe that “there are more harm than good” and “pros and cons are equivalent” also accounted for 25% and 11% of the total number of voters. Another 14% of the respondents said they were "nothing to say". The data in this group shows that the industry is cautious about the impact of the implementation of the new standard on autonomous car companies.

figure 2

From the feedback from our offline survey interviews, the concerns of the industry are mainly concentrated on the fuel technology of the autonomous car companies. Compared with joint ventures, autonomous vehicle companies are relatively lacking in engine fuel technology, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of some small-displacement vehicles is even comparable to the higher-emission vehicles of joint ventures. There are pessimists who worry that the new standard will allow some of the funds to be invested. It is unsustainable for the autonomous car companies, which are relatively weak in technology, to survive. Optimists, on the other hand, said that this is conducive to forcing auto makers to increase their investment in fuel technology and new energy, and accelerate the restructuring of the industry.

According to the data, the fuel consumption figures of the 409 models of the first batch of 34 companies announced by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2006 all reached the limit value standards. In the second batch of fuel consumption of passenger vehicles announced in 2007, 55 were involved in the entire fuel consumption. There are a total of 444 non-compliance models among car companies, among which Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai General Motors and other joint ventures are among them, including more than ten major auto makers such as FAW, Chang'an, Futian and Chery. From this point of view, there is no pressure on the auto makers to reduce fuel consumption. Although the models involved have basically stopped production, they also reflect the predicament faced by auto makers to a certain extent.

The latest batch, that is, the fuel consumption of the third batch of passenger vehicles was formally announced in March last year, and the number of vehicles that did not meet the standard was still more than 400. According to the published company name and specific models, in this batch, the first-line independent car companies such as Chery, Geely, and BYD have been hard to find on the list, but ZTE, Great Wall, Jianghuai and other enterprises are still announced again. The standard vehicles are mainly relatively high energy consumption products such as light buses, SUVs, and MPVs. In particular, independent companies like the Great Wall, which mainly use SUVs as their main products, are generally under pressure to save energy and reduce consumption. In the third batch of revocation lists, nearly 30 models of the Great Wall have been ordered to withdraw from the market.

However, on the whole, self-owned brand models still have an advantage in the small-displacement automotive sector. According to the results of the evaluation of energy conservation of automotive products first announced in Beijing last year by the China Automobile Association and China National Automobile Research Institute, among the 1298 models declared by 38 vehicle manufacturers, the self-owned brand models have achieved a very large breakthrough in energy conservation and emission reduction. Among them, the performance of small-displacement vehicles is particularly prominent, and the energy-saving effects of various models of Chery, BYD and other car companies are at the forefront. In addition, most of the autonomous car companies are currently launching new energy vehicle projects. Once they enter the mass production phase, they will also greatly ease the pressure of energy saving and consumption reduction brought about by the fuel consumption limit standards.

Although the "Limited Limit" refers directly to large displacement and high fuel consumption models, the industry does not believe that the introduction of the new standard will bring a big impact on the rising domestic luxury car market. In Survey 3 (see Figure 3), Up to 68% of people support this view, and the opposition voting rate is only 28%.

image 3

In the online survey interview, many industry experts told Gasgoo.com that luxury car manufacturers have strong technical reserves. Since China had previously set a low fuel consumption limit, most companies did not use their most advanced fuel technology. Introduced into China, once China's relevant standards gradually reach the international level, these luxury car companies can bring their advanced engine energy-saving emission reduction technologies to China to meet the standards, especially the introduction of hybrid and new energy technologies. Analyst Zhang Zhiyong believes that the implementation of the new standard will exert pressure on large-displacement cars and luxury car manufacturers in the short term, but the original intention of the government to establish standard limits is not to stifle the vitality of the auto industry, focusing mainly on guiding the entire The industry's view of energy conservation and emission reduction has prompted companies to increase their technological content.

"The standards set by the government are based on the European and American countries, and the 'low is not high,' and the actual impact on domestically-made luxury car manufacturers is not significant." Zhang Zhiyong said.

As one of the drafters of the “Limit” and the deputy chief engineer of the Institute for Standardization of the China Steam Research Center, Jin Yufu, said in an earlier interview that reducing fuel consumption is a comprehensive indicator of the automobile and the improvement of engine efficiency. There is a strong correlation between the optimization of automobile emissions and the design of automotive structures and the use of lightweight materials, which can lead to the optimization and upgrading of the entire automotive industry chain. This point is also a consensus reached by the industry.

Currently implemented by the three ministries and commissions of energy-saving car Huimin subsidy project is being promoted, and its energy-saving vehicle subsidy standards are basically based on the "limit value" to develop new standards. If the introduction of the "Limited Value" is to plan the energy conservation and emission reduction of automobiles from the industry and the enterprise level, then the implementation of energy-saving vehicle subsidies is guided by the market and consumers, and the two-pronged approach shows the importance the government attaches to the energy conservation and emission reduction of automobiles. And the optimization of industrial upgrading concerns.