The investment prospects of construction machinery are good to prevent the market from fluctuating

Under the stimulation of Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry's Fantastic Semi-annual Report and the generous “red envelopes”, last week, the top five mechanical purchases were included in the financing purchases. Brokerage companies have also issued research reports in recent days and are optimistic about the investment prospects of the machinery industry in the context of industrial upgrading, urbanization, and regional rejuvenation. Among them, construction machinery has become the most promising sub-sector for securities companies.

Economic restructuring

Machinery industry welcomes opportunities for development

The state regulates real estate, rectifies local financing platforms, and the international market remains in a downturn, causing industry insiders to worry about whether there will be an industry turning point in the second half after high growth in the machinery industry. Most brokerages report that the prospects of the machinery industry are sustainable and sustainable under the background of the country's vigorous promotion of regional revitalization, urbanization, and industrial transfer and upgrading.

The report pointed out that industrial upgrading will create tremendous opportunities for the development of the machinery industry. China has gradually entered the stage of post-industrialization, and the leading industries are undergoing changes. The response to emerging industries will be the focus of future demand.

The agency pointed out that in the post-industrialization stage, China's leading industries are likely to be concentrated in the automotive, pharmaceutical, electronics, electrical equipment, special equipment, real estate, railways, aviation, food and beverage and petrochemical industries; accordingly, automation equipment, machine tools Large-scale castings and forgings, construction machinery, railway equipment, aerospace equipment, food packaging machinery and some petrochemical equipment and other industries and related companies will enjoy faster development opportunities.

In the “12th Five-Year Plan” economic structure transformation, the focus of the policy has undergone some new changes. Along with supporting and developing emerging industry policies, regional revitalization has become the focus of the policy. The strategic layout of the country’s rejuvenation of the region will bring new opportunities to the development of the machinery industry.

Construction machinery is unanimously optimistic

As macroeconomic expectations turned from pessimistic to stable, the engineering machinery stocks with performance support were enthusiastically sought after by brokers.

According to statistics, the growth rate of production and sales of the construction machinery industry has been on an upward trend since February this year. From January to June, the total output value of the construction machinery industry was 214.589 billion yuan, an increase of 60.46% year-on-year; and the export delivery value was 8.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate. From 2.68% in January-February to 49.68%, the growth rate ranked first in the machinery industry, showing the best in history.

As the market worried that the construction machinery industry's growth rate in the third quarter will show a significant decline, the construction machinery sector experienced a trend of sideways consolidation in early August after experiencing the July valuation recovery. Gao Hua Securities pointed out that due to the slowdown in construction activity caused by the tightening policy, the sales growth of construction machinery and equipment will slow down in the second half of 2010 and 2011, but the market is worried that the industry will be seriously declining. The brokerage believes that demand for construction machinery should continue to benefit from continued investment in railway infrastructure in the coming years; as signs of economic slowdown become more obvious, policies are expected to relax in the coming months, and infrastructure investment is the area where policy is most likely to relax. Therefore, the outlook for the construction machinery industry is still good.

In the first half of the year, the government issued regulatory credits and real estate control policies that triggered concerns about the development prospects of the construction machinery industry. However, considering the “new 36”, regional planning, affordable housing, and high-speed rail investment acceleration, the new Powered by the agency, the agency believes that the construction machinery industry will continue to operate smoothly in the second half of the year and its growth rate is expected to remain around 30%.

In the machinery sub-sector, Founder Securities also focused on construction machinery, recommended product mix, July gains were relatively low, and the performance growth rate was better than the industry average of Sany Heavy Industry and Shantui Stock. The first entrepreneur pointed out that whether or not the control policy is relaxed in the second half of the year, based on continued profit growth and valuation levels, construction machinery is an ideal choice.

Beware of violent fluctuations in mood

On Monday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets did not continue to sell after following last weekend's adjustments. Instead, they entered a sensitive operation pattern with rapid shrinkage and rapidly narrowing shocks. Against the backdrop of the maintenance of the overall trend, what we must pay attention to is the impact that short-term fluctuations may have on market sentiment.

In general, the short-term market mentality is more impetuous. In fact, the Shanghai Composite Index has also recently formed a small expansion triangle form, which is the result of market sentiment, which is a pale pattern. If it appears after a sharp rise, it will often be a head form. Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has formed a small expansion triangle. It began to return on Friday. If it can get support at the centerline position (2634 points) and start up again, there will be a "toxic attack" effect, and the market will turn to a powerful one. Upside. The volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index remained above the above-mentioned sensitivity level on Monday. With the rapid shrinking of trading volume and the effective maintenance of hotspots, the probability that the market will turn to a strong position exists. In time, these days will have a clear direction. What needs to be reminded is that this is a pale pattern. If the central axis is broken down once, the adjustment will point directly to the lower trajectory, which means that it will once again test the low point of 2,564 last week.

Of course, the Shanghai index is only a weak index in the current index structure. The current strong indexes are the SME Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index. The SME Index has returned above the 120-day moving average on July 28 and regained its long array, followed by the SZ Composite Index. On the 250-year line, the Shenzhen Component Index has now stood above the half-line line, and the weaker Shanghai Index has also entered between the 72-day and 120-day moving averages. In the above analysis, the possible short-term emotional fluctuations The lower limit should be the 72-day moving average. Therefore, the overall upward trend has not changed, and the possible wide-range shocks will not affect the market activity. Before the direction of emotional fluctuations is clear, the operability of large-cap market capitalization of blue-chip stocks is still not strong, and the tactical focus is still to grasp. Good opportunities for various types of theme investment.