Xu Changming, Director of Information Resources Development Department, National Information Center
Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, gave a speech. The following is a record.
Xu Changming: Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon everyone! I am very glad to have the opportunity to participate in this forum today. Today, the topic I am talking to is the development of commercial vehicles in an international competitive environment. I would like to communicate with you from two perspectives. The first one is the Chinese domestic commercial vehicle market where foreign brands are fully engaged, and the second is the export of Chinese commercial vehicles under the international competition environment.
Let's take a look at the Chinese market. We can actually see that even for the commercial vehicle market, it is a global brand competition market. Until now, internationally renowned commercial vehicle manufacturers have basically entered China or invested in China. The factory, or is the output of Chinese technology, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Nissan Diesel, Day and Night, Iveco, Toyota, Ford and other companies have established joint ventures, Mann, Hyundai, Mitsubishi, Isuzu, etc. have the technology exported to China. .
With the participation of global brands, China’s commercial vehicle market has maintained rapid growth over the past 10 years, with an average annual growth rate of 9.9, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of GDP of 9.4. The yellow column represents the commercial vehicle sales in the country. The smaller figure above is the export of commercial vehicles. The growth category below is the growth rate of domestic sales of commercial vehicles in each year, with an average annual growth rate of 9.9%, which should be said to be faster. In 2002, 2004 and 2007, there were more than 20% growth.
A more in-depth analysis we can make shows that this group of high-speed growth did not bring TEDA's revenue to the joint venture brand, but mainly shared by the independent brands. Contrary to passenger cars, the rapid growth of passenger vehicles is shared more by joint venture brands, but commercial vehicles share more with their own brands. Nanjing Iveco, Jiangling Ford, Hino, Yaxing Mercedes, Changzhou Iveco, better inside is Nanjing Iveco and Jiangling Ford, these two are light-based, the other two are more difficult, Mercedes-Benz Mercedes-Benz Mercedes-Benz Has been withdrawn, Changzhou Iveco Iveco has also withdrawn. Huawo has ceased production, and the North Mercedes-Benz has also withdrawn. East Japan produces tens of thousands of diesel engines each year. Relatively speaking, commercial vehicle joint ventures are not very successful, and commercial buses are relatively better than trucks.
Everyone is very doubtful as to why the joint venture of passenger vehicles in China is very successful, but the joint venture of commercial vehicles is extremely unsuccessful, with few successes and most unsuccessful ones. We have also come through long-term research to arrive at a conclusion. The fundamental reason lies in the current stage of development in China. Our level of economic development is still relatively low, resulting in a relatively weak demand for high-end cars. This low level of economic development determines that the demand for high-end cars will be relatively low from four aspects: first, buyers’ purchasing power is relatively low, and drivers’ income is also relatively low. This is one of our statistical data. This is a survey conducted by the National Information Center in December 2005. Let’s take a look at the two pillars of the total. The left column is the average price of medium-sized trucks. The right column is heavy. The average price for trucks to buy, the overall average price of heavy trucks in 230,000, the average price of ordinary trucks is 12.1 thousand, dump trucks and traction heads are about 240,000, and the price of our joint venture brands is much higher than this 2 or even 3 times.
The reason why users don't buy high-end cars when they change cars is that 43% to 47% of users are too expensive to buy, and there is no need for them. Business does not require such high-end cars. This is more than 40%. The following are relatively few, mainly because the price of the car is too expensive. This is the main reason. From the point of view of the city where the buyers and sellers of heavy trucks live, buyers below the county level account for about 60% to 70%.
In addition to buying a car can not afford, in addition to driving the car's requirements are not too high, and now people who drive heavy trucks may pay the driver's wages are 2,000 to 2,500 yuan, most of them in rural areas The living conditions of the family are not very good, so the requirements for the car are not so high. When our per capita GDP is 10,000 US dollars, his family's life is very comfortable. At this time, when driving again, it must be relatively high for the car. Requirements, driving comfort and quality will have a relatively large increase, which is the current low level of economic development affecting the buyer's ability to buy cars and drivers' requirements.
The second reason is that the value of the goods we are transporting is now relatively low. Now that medium-heavy trucks are shipping, we surveyed 100 people, about 34.5% of people shipped raw materials, and 27.9% shipped construction materials, now medium and heavy Goods, raw materials, and construction materials shipped by trucks account for a large proportion of the goods shipped. This is totally different from the ratio of developed countries. This year, although China has about 2 trillion yuan in imports, the soft ratio of exports is still relatively low, so that we have a very low material value of transportation, and it is hard to imagine that we should use airplanes. It is unlikely that coal is transported. It must be very high value for transportation.
The third reason, which is also determined by the low level of economic development, is that our standards for cars are relatively low and management is not strict enough. There are several standards. One is the emission standard of automobiles. We are obviously lower than the developed countries. Above is the nationwide view, we implement O1, O2, O3, O4. We call the country 1, the country 2, the country 3, the country 4, actually It is largely based on O1, O2, O3, and O4. There is also a big gap between Beijing and Europe that we have taken the lead in, and our emission requirements are still not high enough.
At present, many joint-venture brands, such as ABS, GPS, and airbags, have become the standard configuration, and they are still optional on the independent brands. This standard is relatively low.
Commercial vehicle energy consumption standards are missing, and now the passenger car fuel limit standard has been implemented, but commercial vehicle fuel limit standards have not yet been introduced, the latest news is that in February next year, light passenger vehicle fuel restrictions will be introduced, medium and large cars There is still a time limit.
In addition, our oil prices are relatively low, European countries have been around 12 yuan, we were only about 5 yuan, and everyone's enthusiasm for fuel economy is not too high. Safety standards, environmental protection standards, and energy conservation standards are generally relatively low, so our commercial vehicle regulations are still lagging behind, affecting the improvement of commercial vehicle quality levels, because the improvement of commercial vehicle quality levels is largely to be Driven by policies, market pull is one aspect, and policy promotion is also an important aspect.
Fourth, walking conditions are relatively poor. Although highways are built every year between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers per year, passenger cars basically run on highways. A large part of the commercial vehicles we survey do not run on expressways. The less cars a small car runs on the freeway. At present, 49% of heavy trucks run at high speeds, 20% run aisles, 3.2% of roads in urban areas, 4.2% of rural roads, and 4.9% of cars are on the construction site. Now half of the cars are not on highways. The requirements for taking the highway are relatively high, and the relative requirements are relatively low in other places. The improvement of these factors is a gradual process, which determines that the development of joint venture commercial vehicle brands, especially commercial trucks, in China must be a slow process. Multinational companies must be patient in developing commercial vehicles in China. Talking about the second aspect will bring great hope to everyone.
The development of high-end cars in the future will be much faster than in the past 10 years. The main reason is the economy. Our per capita GDP level has also increased substantially. Although we say that the pace of economic development is almost the same as before, in the future we will also see an increase of 10% per year, and the rate of increase in per capita GDP will be very different from before. I have listed here the per capita GDP measured in U.S. dollars for the past 90 years. In 1990, our per capita GDP was only 343.7 yuan. By 2006, we were 2017.6, and in the 16 years, we raised US$1,674. But in the future, we predict that the figure of the column represents the US dollar at the current exchange rate, which is 7.5:1. It should be able to reach US$7,120 by 2020, and it will increase by US$5,000 compared to the present. If according to the current stage of the exchange rate, these three years will increase by 5%, 11% to 15 years by 3%, and after 15 years by 1% each year. According to this calculation, it is possible to reach more than 9,000 U.S. dollars by 2020. In this way, The per capita GDP in the future will be greatly improved, because everyone's requirements and feelings for the car are related to this absolute value, not just feelings. In this regard, including our management standards and law enforcement efforts will be a big increase over the previous, so these four aspects of improvement will lead to the future development of high-end commercial vehicles in China will develop much faster than in the past 10 years, this is our Basic judgments.
Is it occupied by an upgrade of its own brand or a joint venture brand? We further answered why the increase in per capita GDP led to an increase in premium cars. The lateral position of this pillar represents the price/performance ratio. The higher the cost performance to the right, the vertical represents the sales volume, and the middle line we call the price ceiling. With the improvement of the price/performance ratio, its sales volume will rise, but once it exceeds the price ceiling After that, it will not improve with the improvement of the price/performance ratio, it is basically in this respect. We said that if the 1.2 million Mercedes-Benz cost 300,000 yuan, the magnitude of the drop will be very large. The people who originally wanted to buy 100,000 yuan would be useless to you. Exceeding this price ceiling, the increase in per capita GDP will lead to this. The price ceiling rises. Five years ago, the average sales price of heavy trucks was about 230,000. Now that there are a little more than 250,000, and the per capita GDP level has risen further, it is possible that the average selling price may reach 300,000 in a few years. Therefore, the increase in per capita GDP will lead to an average of heavy trucks. As the price increases, the price ceiling will also increase. In the future, the number of cars that may be under 300,000 will increase as the price-to-performance ratio increases. This is a basic judgment.
The demand for high-end cars will increase at a faster pace, but the market share will gradually increase. It is hard to say whether it will be occupied by a joint venture brand or will be occupied by an upgraded independent brand. We will now upgrade our own brands through product upgrades. Product quality and performance, joint venture brands can also reduce some of the standards down, both can be occupied. If the joint venture brand wants to achieve smooth development in the Chinese market, it is best to develop or do secondary development for the Chinese market. If you stick to your current quality standards and performance standards and stick to your current price, you may temporarily upgrade the premium car. Maybe it will be done by the upgraded self-owned brand cars, because now several independent brands have greatly improved their quality through the promotion of power systems and parts systems.
In the second aspect, we analyze the export of commercial vehicles in China under an international competitive environment. One is the export situation and the other is the issue of commercial vehicle exports.
From the perspective of exports, the total volume of automobile exports has maintained a rapid growth or blowout growth in the past five years. In 2002, there were only 22,000 vehicles. From January to August this year, it has reached 155,000 vehicles, which should be said to have a certain degree in the international market. The influence has increased by 100% in the first 4 years and 65% in the first 8 months of this year.
The export of commercial vehicles has maintained a very fast growth. For light vehicles below 5 tons, 05, 06, and 07 are growth rates of 84%, 59%, and 37%. Large and medium-sized passenger cars have increased by 35%, 101%, and 147% respectively. . In 2003, our exports of commercial vehicles accounted for 94% of total automobile exports. From January to August this year, it accounted for 70% of the total exports of commercial vehicles.
From the perspective of the future, we say that the time is ripe for the large-scale export of Chinese cars in the future. This is our basic judgment. In the future, automobile exports will continue to maintain rapid growth. Of course, the possibility of maintaining doubling growth is almost impossible. It is entirely possible to maintain a growth rate of 20% to 30%. Within 10 years we will become a major exporter of automobiles, while commercial vehicles will continue to occupy an important position in the export of automobiles. It can be imagined that three years later, when we reached 1 million vehicles, it was ranked first in the world. Why is there such a judgment? First, the domestic large market will play an important supporting role for automobile exports. This is now the top three global sales, the largest in the United States, about 17 million, and the second in China. This year it will be between 8.45 million and 8.55 million. Japan’s third is 552. We were like Japan two years ago and two years later. Over 50% of it, this speed is very fast. Now it is this speed, and it will grow in the future. If we calculate conservatively by 10% growth, we will be able to surpass the United States by 2015 and become the largest export market for commercial vehicles. At present, none of the world's automobile exporting countries is not There is a big country market to support.
Second, domestic overcapacity and fierce competition have led auto manufacturers to seek out a way out of the international market, especially independent brands. Everyone is taking exports as a very important strategic support.
Third, our current product competitive advantage is mainly reflected in low-cost, low-price advantages. At present, the fast-growing markets in the international market are generally areas of very high price sensitivity, and countries with similar levels of economic development are also global. In the areas where growth has been most pronounced, the growth rate in Central and South America is now more than 20%, the Middle East has grown by more than 30%, and the Central European countries have increased by more than 10%. These regions have relatively low levels of economic development and relatively high levels of economic development in Europe and the United States. The market is basically maintained at 1% to 3%, so these areas are fast-growing markets. The fast-growing market is where there is a lot of demand for our cars.
Fourth, international operating experience and international talents will gradually be enriched and developed. There is now a better phenomenon. Half of the overseas students who go abroad each year can return home. There are also many domestic enterprises that can attract international talents to come to China for employment. As our level of per capita GDP increases, our attractiveness to foreign countries will rapidly increase. Together, these aspects will contribute to our export growth. China’s commercial vehicles are the most competitive among the various models. We divided it into two categories. In the case of domestic demand of 100, the number of joint ventures for commercial vehicles accounted for 3.5, the independent brands accounted for 96.2, and the imports accounted for 0.3%. However, the 71.6% of joint venture passenger cars, own brands accounted for 24.2%, and imported cars accounted for 4.2%. We can see that the proportion of self-owned brands in commercial vehicles is large. Let's take a look at the output of commercial vehicles for 100. 9.8% of them are for export, while 9.1% of commercial vehicles are for export.
The problem with the export of commercial vehicles is a survey conducted by Deloitte. The entire vehicle company believes that the greatest difficulties and challenges faced in exporting products, international relations, after-sales services, quality standards and certification, etc., look at quality, after-sales network, The five aspects of quality standards and certification, sales network, and vicious competition are the biggest problems in current exports.
For domestic commercial vehicle manufacturers to open up the international market recommendations. First, it is better for the target market to choose the best way to implement a path from the third world to moderately developed countries to developed countries, because the third direct world of developing countries is very similar to our technical standards and purchasing power. The product can be exported without any changes. From the perspective of product selectors, it is better not to use the current low-end, low-price strategy. Instead, we must seek a balance between acceptable quality and attractive prices. We should not just compete with the price because our prices Excellent enough competitiveness, even if set 10% again, our prices are absolutely competitive. In the form of exports, it can also export whole vehicles, and it can also export technology.
At the strategic level, the first is to ensure quality. The quality of automotive products, especially reliability, is an important factor that determines the vitality of automotive products' exports. However, it cannot be a low-quality product. In the second after-sales network, we said that there are orders that do not mean that there is a market. A market does not mean that there is an experimental field.
The problem of vicious competition, domestic ibid must be in the international market to avoid vicious competition, and now the product is homogeneous, the target market is homogenized, and most likely to lead to the emergence of vicious competition.
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