On February 9th, a certain media broke out and the auto industry merger and reorganization target was formally announced. That is, the number of automobile enterprise groups with a production and sales scale of more than 90% of the market share will be reduced from the current 14 to less than 10. In this specification, FAW, SAIC, Dongfeng, Chang'an, BAIC, GAC, Fuqi, CNHTC and other provincial leading auto enterprise groups are also included. In addition, second-tier state-owned auto enterprise groups such as Hafei, Changhe, and Jianghuai are also included in these regulations. Within the scope of adjustment, private automobile enterprise groups are not within the scope of adjustment.
When you see this news, I believe most people will want to ask a few questions: 1. Should it not be? 2. Who will become the integrator in this tide? 3, how to integrate?
First we discuss the first question. Should it be? Of course, the answer is yes. Because the market scale of our country is close to the annual production scale of tens of millions, China's auto industry should also enter the stage of restructuring, which matches the world's largest market. This is from the "face". From the perspective of Lizi, world experience has proven that 1 million vehicles with the following production scale will die, and the automobile industry is precisely the industry that attaches most importance to economies of scale. As early as before the “Restructuring of the South,†the country proposed that at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, form 2-3 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with production and sales scale of more than 2 million vehicles, and train 4-5 production and sales scales to exceed 100. 10,000 car enterprise groups. In other words, at that time, the ideal state of China’s auto industry should be that large auto companies maintain “2+4†or “3+5â€, and 10 companies are just a compromise. What's more, the current situation in China's auto industry is that 7% of producers provide more than 80% of sales.
The second question is who is the integrator? Looking at the rankings, the top ten in 2008 are: SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang'an, BAIC, GAC, Chery, Brilliance, Hafei, and Geely. In addition to Geely is a purely private car company, these nine companies should all be listed in the scope of this detailed regulation. In addition to the top ten, there are also four companies with integrated value: Fuqi and Changfeng, which are cooperating with Mitsubishi, Changhe, which has Suzuki shares, and JAC, which is very successful in commercial vehicles. And in the top ten, in addition to the top six basic security. Others, in the long run, are unable to escape the fate of integrating others or being integrated. The fate of Geely, Great Wall, BYD, and other self-owned companies that have grown bigger than their own independent brands has been handed over to the market. Because although the United States has the “big threeâ€, there are still dozens of independent automobile manufacturers, many of whom live well.
The third question is how to integrate? At present, among the “six majorsâ€, except for the typhoons, hail and hafei, the “four big†have the experience of integrating other people. FAW has integrated Tianqi. SAIC first integrated Wuling, then integrated the Nanjing Auto, Chang’an integration. Jiangling, Beiqi integrated Futian. So far, it is not easy to say whether these games are considered successful. The only "Tianyi restructuring" was considered successful, of course, because Toyota is the biggest beneficiary, but the integration of Tianqi?
How to promote the merger and reorganization of the automotive industry in the country, of course, the biggest problem stems from the attribution of ownership and conflicts of interests. For example, the difference between the state-affiliated institutions, provincial-level institutions, and subordinate institutions. Apart from system issues, regardless of the origins of these car companies, once they have established roots, they have intricate relations with the local government and local GDP. Once they are involved in joint ventures, they have also cut costs with foreign car companies. The relationship is also chaotic. These questions are clear. Then what is the will of the two sides. Is there such a need? The problem is so complicated. Therefore, the difficulties are affirmative.
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