Product cost advantage highlights the historic development opportunities for coal chemical equipment

In recent years, as oil prices have continued to rise, people have increasingly shifted their sights to coal chemical industry. At present, coal is still a relatively cheap resource. Coal chemical products have a relative cost advantage over petrochemical products. Calculated on the basis of currently proven oil reserves and mining speeds, the global oil supply can only be maintained for more than 40 years, natural gas for more than 60 years, and coal is the world’s largest mineral energy reserve for human exploration for more than 400 years. This is even more true in China. Coal reserves account for 95% of China's total energy reserves, which is much higher than the global level of 60%. China's current crude oil import dependency is as high as 50%, and it will continue to rise in the future. Such a high degree of dependence has threatened the country's energy security. Therefore, the development of coal chemical industry is of great significance to China.

Based on the basic energy structure of “rich coal, lean oil, and low gas” in China, following the large-scale expansion of the traditional coal chemical industry during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the coal chemical industry will usher in a concentrated outbreak of investment during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's total investment in coal chemical projects exceeds 200 million yuan. Even considering the constraints of water resources, coal resources, environmental sustainability, technological maturity, and cost, conservative assumptions of these planned investments are in place at 50%. As equipment costs account for 50% of the total investment in coal chemical projects, the demand for coal chemical equipment during the “12th Five-Year Plan” will also exceed RMB 500 billion. Coal chemical equipment is expected to become the largest beneficiary segment in the coal chemical industry in the next five years.

A wide range of coal chemical equipment can be divided into two major categories of equipment, static and dynamic. Among them, hydrogenation reactors, gasification furnaces, reduction furnaces, heat exchangers, transport vessels and other pressure vessels and pipelines, valves and other static equipment, pumps, fans, compressors, air separation equipment and other equipment belonging to the moving. The reliable indicator for the coal chemical industry is the order of the engineering design company, which usually leads 2-3 quarters. In the first half of this year, both China Chemicals, which almost monopolized the domestic coal chemical engineering design market, and the new coal chemical contract value signed by Donghua Science and Technology each reached a record high. After the engineering design companies continue, coal chemical equipment companies are expected to usher in historic opportunities. At present, orders are being transferred from engineering design companies to equipment manufacturing companies. The time point for the outbreak of coal chemical equipment sector is expected to be in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year.