This year's two sessions, "school bus safety" was first written into the government work report, requiring "strengthen the school bus safety management to ensure the children's personal safety"; on the eve of the two sessions, the Ministry of Finance has also begun investigations to study the subsidy program for school buses. However, the time until the end of the two sessions, the "school bus management regulations" that the parties are eagerly awaited have not been introduced as scheduled. According to industry insiders, this is the result of the balance of powers of all parties, and this year's school bus market is also difficult to grow explosively.
School bus regulations postponed
Many school bus accidents that occurred last year caused concern among the whole people. In order to strengthen the safety management of school buses and ensure the safety of children and students, the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council led the drafting of the School Bus Safety Regulations (Draft for Comment) (hereinafter referred to as the “Regulationsâ€). And in December 2011, the public was invited to solicit opinions. The current consultation process has ended.
According to informed sources, the Shanghai Securities News recently stated that according to the planning of the relevant departments, the "Regulations" will be passed after discussion during the two sessions. However, because there are certain differences in opinions, the time for launching to the society will be later. “However, the financial subsidies given to the school bus procurement and operation have become a consensus, and the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the proportion of national and local fiscal contributions.†He told reporters.
A sales person in the bus industry also told this reporter that in the stage of soliciting opinions, relevant supervisors have consulted a large number of bus companies in addition to the opinions of local governments. Business people unanimously expressed their willingness to comply with the requirements set out in the Regulations and said they did not want to see a single phenomenon. However, there are certain differences between the parties regarding the increase in the technical standards and the resulting increase in costs. In addition, whether the school bus pays by the school or the local government pays the bill; and how to minimize local protectionism in the school bus procurement process is also the focus of controversy.
In fact, according to our reporter, the door of the Chinese school bus market has gradually opened up. With the awareness of children's safety at all levels of government, the sales of school buses meeting safety standards have gradually improved.
February school bus sales are gratifying
According to the February data released by China Bus Statistics Information Network, 50 bus manufacturers sold a total of 14,267 passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 90.99%. This is the highest monthly sales record of the passenger car industry in the past 10 years, except for the Spring Festival factor. The school bus market contributed the most: 2,925 school bus sales in February, accounting for 20.50% of the total sales, and in January and February this year, the cumulative sales of school buses 4,577, accounting for 14.22% of the total sales; school bus cumulative sales of 730 million yuan, the average The unit price of sales is 159,400 yuan. Yan Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Highway Society Bus Branch, believes that the school bus will become one of the main support points for the passenger car market this year.
According to reports, 19 out of 50 companies have achieved school bus sales, Yutong, Baoding Changan, Dongfeng Bus, Guike Group, Henan Shaolin, Zhongtong Bus, the top six, of which Yutong sales school bus 1856, accounting for the total school bus The proportion of sales reached 40.55%, and Henan Shaolin sold 298 units, accounting for 6.51%.
In the school bus market, the most eye-catching performance is Yutong Bus. According to the recently released sales bulletin from Yutong, the sales of various types of passenger cars in the first two months of this year were 6,772, an increase of 23.76% year-on-year, and continue to lead the Chinese bus industry. Among them, 1856 school buses were sold, which exceeded the total sales volume last year.
This year's market demand is about 40,000 units.
Yu Yuxiang, president of Yutong Group, who had two meetings on the “school bus proposal†told reporters that at the beginning of R&D, Yutong school bus focused on absorbing the advanced experience of developed countries such as the United States to provide security for school bus safety. Since 2008, the market sales of Yutong school buses have ranked first in the country. "But now, how to manage and operate the school bus is still an important issue to be solved." Tang Yuxiang said.
In Tang Yuxiang's view, there is a lot of uncertainty in the school bus market this year. "Because the factors affecting the school bus market are more complicated, and there are great uncertainties. For example, how to set the supporting policies for the school bus in the country, especially how to implement the school bus funds. But put aside these factors, according to the current registration as a school bus. According to the initial calculation, there are more than 100,000 school buses registered as operating vehicles. If the transition is completed within three years according to the previous requirements of the state, the market demand may be around 40,000 this year."
The same point of view is the researcher of the automotive industry of GF Securities. He told reporters that the growth of school buses this year will not be very fast, it is a process of gradual promotion, and it is possible to sell 20,000-30,000 vehicles throughout the year. After all, it takes time for companies to implement the technical requirements of the Regulations. In addition to the framework, the policy needs to finalize the details of the operation.
Experts suggest that operational specifications should be improved
The research institutes have some practical impact on how the Chinese school bus service can bring impact to the bus industry. There are also some differences. According to a research report released by Orient Securities, the demand for potential professional school buses in China is about 1 million, and the potential market demand is 400 billion yuan. It is expected to drive the professional school bus market into an explosive growth period.
However, CITIC Jiantou clearly does not agree with this view. According to a recent research report by CITIC Jiantou, the demand for 1 million school buses predicted by institutional statistics is calculated based on the average of 35 seats per year for Chinese primary and secondary school students. According to the number of school buses, the car purchase expenses, maintenance costs, staff wages, etc., total annual expenditure of 180 billion yuan, and the annual public finance education investment in 2010 is 1.42 trillion yuan, of which the school bus market mainly faces kindergartens. The expenditure on primary education is estimated to be between 300 billion and 500 billion yuan. The market for millions of school buses has been over-expensive for quite some time. The brokerage researcher also pointed out that China's urban population is mainly concentrated and residential, kindergartens and primary schools are all close to each other, school bus demand is low, and domestic rural areas are scattered, school bus demand is large, and they face the problem of insufficient payment capacity, so it cannot be simple. Analogy to the school bus market in the United States and China.
Yan Zhenqing told reporters: "The school bus is a new market. According to the current situation of the bus market, it is unreasonable to prematurely infer the trend of the school bus market, and the reliability is not great. The school bus market rules have not been fully established, and what will be developed in the future? The form is difficult to judge.†Zhen Zhenqing’s suggestion is that the school bus problem is not simply a product problem, nor a standard problem. The product and the standard are not the main contradictions of the school bus problem. The most important thing is to solve the problem of the school bus operation level, that is, the need Clarify the code of conduct for school bus operations. This is the key to public opinion orientation should pay attention to the school bus problem. In addition, it is necessary to establish a legal and regulatory system for school buses, including the introduction of school bus safety regulations, school bus operating standards system and school bus standard system.
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