According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, the exports of the textile and machinery industries in the first seven months increased significantly year-on-year. In the face of a globally complex economic situation, can the industry's export growth rate maintain a substantial increase in the second half of the year? Most of the companies interviewed are cautious. In addition, analysts predict that the export growth rate of the petrochemical industry in the second half of the year is likely to slow down considerably.
Machinery and equipment: the situation is complicated
In export commodities, electromechanical products are the "protagonists." According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 500.69 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 36.2%, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than China's overall export growth rate during the same period and accounted for 58.9% of China's total exports during the same period. The export of machinery and equipment was 169.67 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 36.6%.
Zhang Mengqing, director of Anhui Heli, told the reporter that “The company’s export growth in the first half of the year will exceed the industry average.†He introduced that in the first quarter, Anhui Heli's export growth has reached 60%, and it is expected that the first half of the export growth will exceed the first quarter. .
XCMG's interim report also pointed out that in the first half of the year, the company achieved export sales of 1.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.39%, accounting for approximately 12% of the total revenue for the first half of the year.
However, the two companies interviewed by the reporter all said that "the export situation in the second half of the year is very complicated."
At present, the export direction of machinery and equipment is emerging economies and resource countries. Some analysts pointed out that due to the influence of complicated factors such as the uncertainty of foreign economic recovery and the rebound of the US dollar, there is a risk of tightening foreign demand for machinery and equipment in the second half of the year. At the same time, the over-expected demand in the first half of the year overdrawn the future, and the growth of machinery and equipment exports in the second half will be lower than the first half.
Petrochemical: Or slowed down significantly
Regarding the export situation of the petrochemical industry in the second half of the year, the industry is not optimistic. Li Yongwu, president of the petrochemical association, believes that canceling the export tax rebate policy will have a greater impact on rubber, pesticides, inorganic salts, etc. Substantial impact will be reflected in the second half of the year. Zhu believes that in the second half of the year, the export environment will be harder to improve. The process of recovering the world market may be slower than people expected. In addition, some domestic industries will cancel the export tax rebate, so the growth rate of the industry's exports in the second half of the year may have a big margin. Slow down.
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